I've been hearing about the crash of higher education and the death of the liberal arts for decades (in fact, from my earliest days as a newbie in the administration at UPenn). I can remember the handwringing among Colby's senior leadership when tuition and fees were about to cross the $10 K barrier (no way! the sky will fall!). The institutions I've served have lived through demographic dips, recessions (including the "Great" one), hostile Secretaries of Education from both parties (enjoying schadenfreude when Margaret Spellings became President at UNC, gnashing my teeth when Jaime Studley jumped from leading Skidmore to working for Arne Duncan), and too many other challenges to mention. And they are still alive and well. But....

We are seeing a steady attrition in the ranks of small liberal arts colleges - and increasing stress on some of those that have substantial reputations. The stressors are primarily financial, including the interwoven strands of enrollment, discount rate, net tuition revenue, and access. Different institutions have tried different strategies: adding programs, eliminating programs, lowering tuition, tweaking merit aid, merging, etc.

I have yet to meet anybody who think there is a silver bullet for this set of problems. I am pretty sure that the best strategies will be institution-specific and multi-pronged. I am also pretty sure that more closures are coming down the road. Bottom-line: people want a premium experience but are increasingly unable or unwilling to pay the price. And we probably have greater capacity than we need.

I've heard that the "sky is falling" for years and have shrugged. But lately I keep looking up.